建模多代理系统需要了解代理的相互作用。这样的系统通常很难建模,因为它们可以涉及各种类型的相互作用,以促进丰富的社会行为动态。在这里,我们介绍了一种用于准确建模多代理系统的方法。我们介绍了使用多重注意(IMMA)的相互作用建模,这是一种前向预测模型,该模型使用多重潜在图代表多种独立类型的相互作用,并注意对不同优势的关系。我们还介绍了渐进层培训,这是该体系结构的培训策略。我们表明,我们的方法在轨迹预测和关系推理中的最先进模型优于最先进的模型,涵盖了三个多代理方案:社交导航,合作任务成就和团队运动。我们进一步证明,我们的方法可以改善零拍的概括,并使我们能够探究不同的相互作用如何影响代理行为。
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Algorithms that involve both forecasting and optimization are at the core of solutions to many difficult real-world problems, such as in supply chains (inventory optimization), traffic, and in the transition towards carbon-free energy generation in battery/load/production scheduling in sustainable energy systems. Typically, in these scenarios we want to solve an optimization problem that depends on unknown future values, which therefore need to be forecast. As both forecasting and optimization are difficult problems in their own right, relatively few research has been done in this area. This paper presents the findings of the ``IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling," held in 2021. We present a comparison and evaluation of the seven highest-ranked solutions in the competition, to provide researchers with a benchmark problem and to establish the state of the art for this benchmark, with the aim to foster and facilitate research in this area. The competition used data from the Monash Microgrid, as well as weather data and energy market data. It then focused on two main challenges: forecasting renewable energy production and demand, and obtaining an optimal schedule for the activities (lectures) and on-site batteries that lead to the lowest cost of energy. The most accurate forecasts were obtained by gradient-boosted tree and random forest models, and optimization was mostly performed using mixed integer linear and quadratic programming. The winning method predicted different scenarios and optimized over all scenarios jointly using a sample average approximation method.
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Importance: The prevalence of severe mental illnesses (SMIs) in the United States is approximately 3% of the whole population. The ability to conduct risk screening of SMIs at large scale could inform early prevention and treatment. Objective: A scalable machine learning based tool was developed to conduct population-level risk screening for SMIs, including schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorders, psychosis, and bipolar disorders,using 1) healthcare insurance claims and 2) electronic health records (EHRs). Design, setting and participants: Data from beneficiaries from a nationwide commercial healthcare insurer with 77.4 million members and data from patients from EHRs from eight academic hospitals based in the U.S. were used. First, the predictive models were constructed and tested using data in case-control cohorts from insurance claims or EHR data. Second, performance of the predictive models across data sources were analyzed. Third, as an illustrative application, the models were further trained to predict risks of SMIs among 18-year old young adults and individuals with substance associated conditions. Main outcomes and measures: Machine learning-based predictive models for SMIs in the general population were built based on insurance claims and EHR.
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In this paper, we consider the problem of adjusting the exploration rate when using value-of-information-based exploration. We do this by converting the value-of-information optimization into a problem of finding equilibria of a flow for a changing exploration rate. We then develop an efficient path-following scheme for converging to these equilibria and hence uncovering optimal action-selection policies. Under this scheme, the exploration rate is automatically adapted according to the agent's experiences. Global convergence is theoretically assured. We first evaluate our exploration-rate adaptation on the Nintendo GameBoy games Centipede and Millipede. We demonstrate aspects of the search process. We show that our approach yields better policies in fewer episodes than conventional search strategies relying on heuristic, annealing-based exploration-rate adjustments. We then illustrate that these trends hold for deep, value-of-information-based agents that learn to play ten simple games and over forty more complicated games for the Nintendo GameBoy system. Performance either near or well above the level of human play is observed.
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Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) are commonly identified during randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Identifying subgroups of patients with similar treatment effects is of high interest in clinical research to advance precision medicine. Often, multiple clinical outcomes are measured during an RCT, each having a potentially heterogeneous effect. Recently there has been high interest in identifying subgroups from HTEs, however, there has been less focus on developing tools in settings where there are multiple outcomes. In this work, we propose a framework for partitioning the covariate space to identify subgroups across multiple outcomes based on the joint CIs. We test our algorithm on synthetic and semi-synthetic data where there are two outcomes, and demonstrate that our algorithm is able to capture the HTE in both outcomes simultaneously.
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Data-driven modeling has become a key building block in computational science and engineering. However, data that are available in science and engineering are typically scarce, often polluted with noise and affected by measurement errors and other perturbations, which makes learning the dynamics of systems challenging. In this work, we propose to combine data-driven modeling via operator inference with the dynamic training via roll outs of neural ordinary differential equations. Operator inference with roll outs inherits interpretability, scalability, and structure preservation of traditional operator inference while leveraging the dynamic training via roll outs over multiple time steps to increase stability and robustness for learning from low-quality and noisy data. Numerical experiments with data describing shallow water waves and surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics demonstrate that operator inference with roll outs provides predictive models from training trajectories even if data are sampled sparsely in time and polluted with noise of up to 10%.
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Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be able to perform new tasks based on a few demonstrations or natural language instructions. While these capabilities have led to widespread adoption, most LLMs are developed by resource-rich organizations and are frequently kept from the public. As a step towards democratizing this powerful technology, we present BLOOM, a 176B-parameter open-access language model designed and built thanks to a collaboration of hundreds of researchers. BLOOM is a decoder-only Transformer language model that was trained on the ROOTS corpus, a dataset comprising hundreds of sources in 46 natural and 13 programming languages (59 in total). We find that BLOOM achieves competitive performance on a wide variety of benchmarks, with stronger results after undergoing multitask prompted finetuning. To facilitate future research and applications using LLMs, we publicly release our models and code under the Responsible AI License.
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Many scientific domains gather sufficient labels to train machine algorithms through human-in-the-loop techniques provided by the Zooniverse.org citizen science platform. As the range of projects, task types and data rates increase, acceleration of model training is of paramount concern to focus volunteer effort where most needed. The application of Transfer Learning (TL) between Zooniverse projects holds promise as a solution. However, understanding the effectiveness of TL approaches that pretrain on large-scale generic image sets vs. images with similar characteristics possibly from similar tasks is an open challenge. We apply a generative segmentation model on two Zooniverse project-based data sets: (1) to identify fat droplets in liver cells (FatChecker; FC) and (2) the identification of kelp beds in satellite images (Floating Forests; FF) through transfer learning from the first project. We compare and contrast its performance with a TL model based on the COCO image set, and subsequently with baseline counterparts. We find that both the FC and COCO TL models perform better than the baseline cases when using >75% of the original training sample size. The COCO-based TL model generally performs better than the FC-based one, likely due to its generalized features. Our investigations provide important insights into usage of TL approaches on multi-domain data hosted across different Zooniverse projects, enabling future projects to accelerate task completion.
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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is having a tremendous impact across most areas of science. Applications of AI in healthcare have the potential to improve our ability to detect, diagnose, prognose, and intervene on human disease. For AI models to be used clinically, they need to be made safe, reproducible and robust, and the underlying software framework must be aware of the particularities (e.g. geometry, physiology, physics) of medical data being processed. This work introduces MONAI, a freely available, community-supported, and consortium-led PyTorch-based framework for deep learning in healthcare. MONAI extends PyTorch to support medical data, with a particular focus on imaging, and provide purpose-specific AI model architectures, transformations and utilities that streamline the development and deployment of medical AI models. MONAI follows best practices for software-development, providing an easy-to-use, robust, well-documented, and well-tested software framework. MONAI preserves the simple, additive, and compositional approach of its underlying PyTorch libraries. MONAI is being used by and receiving contributions from research, clinical and industrial teams from around the world, who are pursuing applications spanning nearly every aspect of healthcare.
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Transformer models have achieved great success across many NLP problems. However, previous studies in automated ICD coding concluded that these models fail to outperform some of the earlier solutions such as CNN-based models. In this paper we challenge this conclusion. We present a simple and scalable method to process long text with the existing transformer models such as BERT. We show that this method significantly improves the previous results reported for transformer models in ICD coding, and is able to outperform one of the prominent CNN-based methods.
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